关键词: ARIMA, BP神经网络, 入境旅游, 预测

Abstract: Inbound tourism is the key factors of development to tourism industry. It is very important and necessary to improve reception efficiency and level of tourist destination that achieve a period of the tourist reception information by forecasting inbound tourism demand. The paper forecasts the inbound tourism demand of Jiangsu province by applying ARIMA model and BP neural network model to supply policy reference and data support for implementing the tourism development strategies of Jiangsu province. The results indicate that the forecast results are good.

Key words: ARIMA, BP neural network, inbound tourism, forecasting