关键词:  , 易感群体, 传染源, 传播途径

Abstract: By analyzing the streaming media propagations in different types of groups, this thesis argues that the propagation is similar to infectious diseases spreading process in various types of populations. By setting the different attractiveness of various types of streaming media on different groups (vulnerable groups), the different groups’ capacity of spreading streaming media and ways of transmission (transmission mode) as the elements, a new prediction model of streaming popularity is proposed which could be used to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the streaming media popularity and then provide the basis for the operator’s resource allocation and deployment.

Key words:  vulnerable groups, infection source, transmission mode