• 算法设计与分析 •

### 基于混合藤Copula和ILHS的概率电压稳定评估算法

1. (1.广东电网有限责任公司电网规划研究中心,广东广州510000;
2.广东电网有限责任公司,广东广州510000;3.中国电力科学研究院有限公司,北京100000)
• 出版日期:2023-01-04 发布日期:2023-01-04
• 作者简介:彭穗(1992—),男,江西丰城人,工程师,博士研究生,研究方向:电力系统规划,E-mail: pengsui@gd.csg.cn; 许亮(1987—),男,安徽池州人,高级工程师,硕士研究生,研究方向:电网及新能源规划,E-mail: xuliang-27@163.com; 张志强(1978—),男,河北滦县人,教授级高级工程师,博士,研究方向:系统仿真分析,E-mail: zhangzhq@epri.sgcc.com.cn。
• 基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目(51877200); 广东电网公司电力规划专题项目(031000QQ00210025)

### Probabilistic Voltage Stability Evaluation Algorithm Based on Mixed Vine Copula and ILHS

1. (1. Grid Planning and Research Center, Guangdong Power Grid Corporation Limited, Guangzhou 510000, China；
2. Guangdong Power Grid Corporation Limited, Guangzhou 510000, China；
3. China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100000, China)
• Online:2023-01-04 Published:2023-01-04

Abstract: In order to evaluate the impact of solar and photovoltaic output with complex correlation on power system voltage stability, a probabilistic voltage stability evaluation (PVSE) algorithm based on mixed vine Copula and inherit Latin hypercube sampling (ILHS) is proposed. Based on fuzzy c-means clustering, the scenarios of wind speed and solar radiation data in the practical power grid is divided. The AD distance is used to evaluate the optimal vine structure in different scenarios, and a probability input model based on mixed vine Copula is established. The sample points are sampled from the probability input model by using the ILHS, and the number of sample points is gradually increased according to the convergence criterion until PVSE converges. At the same time, the previously generated sample points and their corresponding results are continuously reused in the process of probability analysis, so as to greatly improve the efficiency of probability analysis. Based on the IEEE-118 bus system, the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is verified. The results show that the proposed algorithm can accurately describe the correlation structure of multi-dimensional input data, and the calculation accuracy and speed of PVSE can be greatly improved by using the proposed algorithm.