计算机与现代化

• 人工智能 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于极限学习机的股票价格预测

  

  1. (中国民用航空飞行学院计算机学院,四川 广汉 618307)
  • 收稿日期:2014-09-17 出版日期:2014-12-22 发布日期:2014-12-22
  • 作者简介:廖洪一(1989-),女,四川成都人,中国民用航空飞行学院计算机学院硕士研究生,研究方向:机器学习; 王欣(1973-),男,四川绵阳人,教授,研究生导师,博士,研究方向:数据挖掘。

Stock Price Forecasting Based on Extreme Learning Machine

  1. (School of Computer Science, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Guanghan 618307, China)
  • Received:2014-09-17 Online:2014-12-22 Published:2014-12-22

摘要: 极限学习机(Extreme Learning Machine, ELM)是一种新型的单馈层神经网络算法,克服了传统的误差反向传播方法需要多次迭代,算法的计算量和搜索空间大的缺点,只需要设置合适的隐含层节点个数,为输入权和隐含层偏差进行随机赋值,一次完成无需迭代。研究表明股票市场是一个非常复杂的非线性系统,需要用到人工智能理论、统计学理论和经济学理论。本文将极限学习机方法引入股票价格预测中,通过对比支持向量机(Support Vector Machine, SVM)和误差反传神经网络(Back Propagation Neural Network, BP神经网络),分析极限学习机在股票价格预测中的可行性和优势。结果表明极限学习机预测精度高,并且在参数选择及训练速度上具有较明显的优势。

关键词: 极限学习机, 股票价格, 预测模型, 支持向量机, 神经网络

Abstract: Extreme learning machine (ELM) is a new learning algorithm of single-hidden layer feed-forward neural network (SLFNs), and overcomes the disadvantages of the classical learning algorithm in neural network method's multiple iterations, huge search space and a large number of calculations, only needs to set the appropriate numbers of hidden layer nodes, assigns the weight of input and deviation of hidden layers without iteration. Research shows that the stock market is a very complex nonlinear system, we need to use artificial intelligence theory, statistics theory and economic theory to study the stock price forecast. In this paper, ELM is introduced in predicting the stock price, and by comparing with SVM and BP, we analyze its feasibility and advantage in stock price prediction. The experiment results show that ELM is of high accuracy of prediction and obvious advantages in parameter selection and learning speed.

Key words: extreme learning machine, stock price, prediction model, support vector machine, neural network

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