关键词: 观点演化, 耦合网络, 时序网络, 舆情引导, 社交机器人

Abstract:  In recent years， social bots have garnered significant attention as new participants in the ecosystem of social networks. However， research on them within the country is relatively scarce. To gain in-depth insights into the role and corresponding patterns of social bots in the evolution of public opinion， it is necessary to investigate their impact on the evolution of group opinions. This study， by considering the Hawkes process manifested in individual activity changes， constructs a time-varying driving mechanism for the formation of social network connections. Simultaneously， it establishes an asymmetric two-layer coupled social network and the corresponding continuous opinion evolution model. The study introduces social bots and explores their guiding effects on group opinions. The experimental analysis reveals that the discussion in online social networks about public events heats up and triggers a further increase in the group activity level in offline social networks， aligning with real-world scenarios. Additionally， a very small number of social bots can effectively guide group opinions， demonstrating their practical value. Therefore， setting a certain number of social bots and deploying them early on is an effective strategy for guiding public opinion.

Key words:  , opinion evolution； coupled networks； temporal networks； opinion guidance； social bots