计算机与现代化

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一种基于相似性搜索的水位预测方法

  

  1. (河海大学计算机与信息学院,江苏南京210098)
  • 收稿日期:2015-06-09 出版日期:2015-11-12 发布日期:2015-11-16
  • 作者简介:黄政(1991-),男,湖北兴山人,河海大学计算机与信息学院硕士研究生,研究方向:数据挖掘; 肖艳(1991-),女,硕士研究生,研究方向:数据挖掘。

Method of Predicting Water Level Based on Similarity Search

  1. (College of Computer and Information, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)
  • Received:2015-06-09 Online:2015-11-12 Published:2015-11-16

摘要:

将相似性搜索和神经网络方法结合,提出一种预测某流域水位的方法。根据待预测日前15日的水位与前49年拥有相似水文特征月份的水位序列进行相似性度量,然后将这些最相近的水位时间段以及后一日的水位作为训练集,采用BP神经网络进行预测。实验结果表明,该方法预测值的波动范围在国家允许的范围内,并且精确度较高。

关键词: 水信息学, 相似性搜索, BP神经网络, 水位预测

Abstract: Abstract: Combining similarity search with neural network, a method of predicting water level was proposed. We calculate similarity distance of water level series between fifteen days before predicting day and months of forty-nine years before predicting year whose hydrological characteristics was similar to predicting months, then seek the most similar water level series of each year. Lastly, the most similar series of forty-nine years and the water level after the last day of them were used as training set of BP neural network. The experimental results show that predictions of the method combining similarity search with BP neural network are more accurate and their fluctuations are within the scope permitted by state.

Key words: hydroinformatics, similarity search, BP neural network, water level prediction

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