Abstract: In order to study whether the railway scaffolding structure fails under the impact of the broken conductor, this paper proposes a Kriging model-based railway scaffolding structure failure prediction method. Firstly, the finite element model of the scaffolding structure is established to simulate the stress of the scaffold under the ultimate load. Then, the Kriging model is used to predict the damage area of the scaffolding structure under the ultimate load. Finally, the K-folding cross is used. The verification method verifies the accuracy of the established Kriging model and compares it with the radial basis function (RBF) model prediction accuracy. The results show that the proposed Kriging model-based railway scaffolding structure failure prediction method has higher prediction accuracy and can be applied to guide the structural design of railway scaffolding.

Key words: railway scaffolding structure, Kriging model, computer simulation, failure prediction, cross-validation