Abstract: Aiming at the test data having the feature of small sample and nonlinearity and low prediction accuracy using traditional UGM(1,1) in missile degradation condition prediction, the structure mode of background value in traditional UGM(1,1) is optimized and a new calculation formula of background value is designed through analyzing the modeling process of traditional UGM(1,1). Further more, a method of missile degradation condition prediction based on improved UGM(1,1) is proposed. Missile in storage condition as an example is used to realize key parameters predicting. Finally, the results validate the rationality and effectiveness of improved UGM(1,1) prediction model.

Key words: missile, degradation condition prediction, UGM(1,1), background value structure