Abstract:

Because of high fluctuation and many influence factors, common algorithm cannot get precise predictions.

According to the problem, the article presents a new import and export trade prediction algorithm based on multi-

kernel RVM model optimized by PSO. Firstly， the article finds factors influencing import and export trade and

extracting main factors with PCA. Then on the basis of training of several single kernel RVM models based on

different kernel functions, multi-kernel RVM model is built according to the prediction error. Lastly, parameters

of multi-kernel RVM model are optimized by PSO to heighten precision of prediction. The emulation experiment shows

that this method can gain more accurate prediction result in the prediction of Shenzhen import and export trade.

Key words: import and export trade prediction, RVM, PSO optimization, multi-kernel

CLC Number: 

• TP301.6