计算机与现代化 ›› 2012, Vol. 208 ›› Issue (12): 178-183.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-2475.2012.12.046
• 应用与开发 • 上一篇 下一篇
李鹏,王琛
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LI Peng, WANG Chen
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摘要： 将MIS项目风险从技术、费用、进度3方面对软件开发过程的分析、设计、实施3个阶段进行分析。以调查问卷的形式分析被调查的项目开发人员在一定的知识、经验、偏好基础上给出的答案，整理得出每个因素的所有指标中得分较大的风险指标，并根据专家给出的确信度对得到的风险指标的风险概率和风险损失值进行D-S证据融合，最终得到MIS项目的综合风险评价值。利用案例说明该方法对MIS项目的风险评估具有一定的应用价值。
关键词: 证据理论, MIS项目, 风险评价, 软件项目
Abstract: This paper analyses the analyses, design and implementation three stages of the process of software development, from the three aspects of technology, cost, schedule of MIS project risk. Achieves the answers given by the MIS project developers on the basis of knowledge, experience, preferences, collects the greater risk indicators in each factor. Makes use of the theory of D-S evidence fuse according to the assurance given by experts on the risk indicators of risk probability and risk loss. Finally, gets a comprehensive evaluation of risk for the MIS project. An example illustrates the validity for the MIS evaluation of risk.
Key words: evidence theory, MIS project, evaluation of risk, software project
中图分类号:
C931.6
李鹏;王琛. 基于D-S证据理论的MIS项目风险评估模型研究[J]. 计算机与现代化, 2012, 208(12): 178-183.
LI Peng;WANG Chen. Research on Risk Evaluation Model of MIS Project Based on D-S Evidence Theory [J]. Computer and Modernization, 2012, 208(12): 178-183.
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链接本文: http://www.c-a-m.org.cn/CN/10.3969/j.issn.1006-2475.2012.12.046
http://www.c-a-m.org.cn/CN/Y2012/V208/I12/178
