关键词: 一次指数平滑, 二次指数平滑, 三次指数平滑, 航材消耗预测

Abstract: Because the linear, secondary, cubic exponential smoothing method have different fitting degree when predicting the spares with the different consumption discipline, this paper adopts the three kinds of exponential smoothing method to predict spares consumption quota, whose smoothing coefficients take a value that makes the squared error minimum when it is in a certain range, finally selects the result, with minimum squared error among the three methods, as spares consumption quota. Prediction results show that the comprehensive application of three kinds of exponential smoothing method to predict is more accurate than single method, the research method is of higher utility and promotion.
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Key words: linear exponential smoothing, secondary exponential smoothing, cubic exponential smoothing, spares consumption prediction